17 Jan

2024 NBA picks, Jan. 16 best bets by proven model

Two of the best teams in the NBA meet at Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia on Tuesday. The Philadelphia 76ers welcome the Denver Nuggets to town, with Philadelphia playing on the second end of a back-to-back. The 76ers are 15-6 at home and 25-13 overall, while the Nuggets are 28-13 overall and 11-9 away from Denver. De’Anthony Melton (back) is listed as out for Philadelphia.

For this game, SportsLine consensus lists the 76ers as 1.5-point favorites, and tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 233.5 in the latest Nuggets vs. 76ers odds. Before making any 76ers vs. Nuggets picks, you need to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters Week 13 of the 2023-24 NBA season on a sizzling 42-23 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $2,000. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Sixers vs. Nuggets and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Now, here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Nuggets vs. Sixers:

Nuggets vs. 76ers spread: 76ers -1.5
Nuggets vs. 76ers over/under: 233.5 points
Nuggets vs. 76ers money line: 76ers -125, Nuggets +105
DEN: The Nuggets are 7-13 against the spread in road games
PHI: The 76ers are 2-4 against the spread with no rest
Nuggets vs. 76ers picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Nuggets can cover
Denver’s offense attracts earned attention, but the team’s defense is also stout. The Nuggets are allowing only 1.13 points per possession this season, ranking in the top 10 of the NBA in defensive efficiency. Opponents are shooting only 46.5% from the field and 52.3% from 2-point range against Denver, and the Nuggets are giving up only 12.5 second-chance points per game. Denver is also in the top 10 in assists allowed (25.6 per game), and the defensive performance further fuels an elite offense.

The Nuggets are near the top of the league in offensive efficiency, scoring 118.6 points per 100 possessions, and Denver is in the top five of the NBA in field goal percentage (49.8%) and 2-point percentage (56.4%). The Nuggets are also shooting 37.8% from 3-point range, and Denver is elite in generating assists (29.7 per game) and avoiding turnovers (12.7 per game). From there, Denver is in the top tier of the league in producing points in the paint (54.9 per game), and the Nuggets secure 30% of available offensive rebounds. See which team to pick here.

Why the 76ers can cover
While the 76ers have a rest disadvantage on paper, Philadelphia does have the edge in playing at home at Wells Fargo Center. The 76ers are 15-6 at home this season, out-scoring opponents by 10.1 points per 100 possessions. Philadelphia is elite on both ends of the court, forming a strong overall baseline. On offense, the 76ers are putting up more than 1.19 points per possession and leading the NBA in both free throw creation (27.1 attempts per game) and free throw accuracy (84.0%). Philadelphia is also in the top eight of the NBA in fast break points, offensive rebound rate and second-chance points, with the 76ers committing a turnover on only 12.5% of offensive possessions.

Denver struggles to force turnovers on defense, creating only 12.6 per game, and Philadelphia does not have that issue with its own defense. The 76ers lead the NBA with 9.1 steals per game while posting a top-five mark in creating 14.9 turnovers per contest. Philadelphia also leads the NBA in 3-point defense, holding opponents to only 33.7% shooting from beyond the arc. See which team to pick here.

How to make 76ers vs. Nuggets picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning Under on the total, projecting 228 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. You can only see the model’s picks at SportsLine.

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