We’ve got another exciting Southeast Division matchup on Friday’s NBA schedule as the Miami Heat will host the Atlanta Hawks. Miami is 24-17 overall and 12-7 at home, while Atlanta is 17-23 overall and 9-12 on the road. The Heat have won four straight meetings with the Hawks and five straight matchups at home. The Heat are 19-20-2 against the spread in the 2023-24 NBA season, while the Hawks are a league-worst 10-30 ATS.
Tip-off is at 8 p.m. ET at Kaseya Center in Miami. The Heat are favored by 7.5 points in the latest Hawks vs. Heat odds, per SportsLine consensus, and the over/under is 224.5 points. Before entering any Heat vs. Hawks picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions from the model at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters Week 13 of the 2023-24 NBA season on a sizzling 42-23 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $2,000. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
The model has set its sights on Atlanta vs. Miami. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Hawks vs. Heat:
Heat vs. Hawks spread: Heat -7.5
Heat vs. Hawks over/under: 224.5 points
Heat vs. Hawks money line: Heat: -328, Hawks: +258
Heat vs. Hawks picks: See picks at SportsLine
What you need to know about the Heat
The experts predicted a close game on Wednesday and a win for the Heat, but boy were they wrong. They found themselves the reluctant recipients of a 121-97 punch to the gut against the Toronto Raptors. The Heat’s defeat signaled the end of their three-game winning streak. The Miami trio of Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro each scored 16 points in the defeat.
Each of those players are averaging at least 21 points, five rebounds and four assists, though they haven’t spent much time on the court together, going 5-5 in their 10 games in which all started. Jaime Jaquez Jr. is fourth on the team with 14 points per game, but he’s listed as doubtful with a groin strain, while Kevin Love (knee) is questionable. Miami is 2-0 ATS versus Atlanta this season, and the Heat have covered in five of their last six games overall. See which team to pick here.
What you need to know about the Hawks
Meanwhile, Atlanta skirted by the Orlando Magic 106-104 on Wednesday thanks to a clutch jump shot from Dejounte Murray with less than a second left in the fourth quarter. The victory made it back-to-back wins for the Hawks, who haven’t won three straight since the second week of the season. Atlanta shortened its rotation in that victory over Orlando, playing just eight players, but six of them scored in double-figures.
The Hawks average the fourth-most points per game, and while a high volume is their calling card — as they attempt the most shots per game — high efficiency is not as Atlanta ranks 20th in field goal percentage. Leading scorer Trae Young (27.2 PPG) is shooting just 42.1% from the field, which is his lowest since his rookie year. However, the Hawks are simply hoping that Young is able to play as he’s listed as questionable with an illness, while De’Andre Hunter (knee) is listed as out. See which team to pick here.
Key Betting Info
Some of the betting trends to consider are:
The Hawks are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games vs teams that win over 55% of games.
The Hawks are 8-28 ATS in their last 36 games vs teams allowing over 102 PPG.
The Heat are 18-18-2 ATS in their last 38 games vs teams allowing over 102 PPG.
How to make Heat vs. Hawks picks
The model has simulated Hawks vs. Heat 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Over, and it’s also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in almost 60% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.